Market Recap
Spot gold traded near $4,180 per ounce on Thursday after briefly surging to a three-week high of $4,244.96, before retreating as traders reassessed the Fed’s December rate-cut outlook. Although markets expect weak labor data once the US government reopens, which could support a rate cut next month, recent cautious comments from Fed officials cooled sentiment.
WTI crude hovered near $58.89 per barrel, holding steady as markets weighed persistent global oversupply concerns against potential supply disruptions tied to sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil.
Gold
Gold pulled back sharply from its early-session highs, with spot prices falling 1.1% to $4,151.86 per ounce.
- Silver dropped 2.3% to $52.18
- Platinum -2.8%
- Palladium -3.7%
Gold hit $4,244.96, the highest level since October 21, on expectations that government reopening would bring back economic data showing labor weakness, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. However, market sentiment reversed as Fed policymakers continued to express caution about further easing.
Traders described Thursday’s move as a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction.
Even though the Fed cut rates last month, Chair Powell stressed that further easing is not guaranteed, and persistent inflation concerns pushed investors to reassess.
Analysts noted that precious metals were caught in a broad market selloff, including equities, bonds, the US dollar, and cryptocurrencies. While gold may remain under short-term pressure as rate-cut expectations cool and investors take profits after the shutdown ended, it continues to hold above the key $4,150 support zone.
Gold Technical Outlook:
Gold remains in a high-volatility bullish structure. The market saw another strong push during the US session, breaking above $4,150, with highs near $4,212. Thursday’s strong daily candle confirms that the October downtrend window at $4,180–4,160 has been fully broken.
This suggests the correction phase has ended and the market has shifted into an emotionally driven bullish mode. However, such sentiment-driven rallies are unpredictable, and traders must consider whether bullish momentum can continue without hitting heavy technical resistance.
Today’s Gold Focus:
Bias: Buy dips, sell rebounds.
- Resistance: 4,220–4,250
- Support: 4,165–4,145
Oil
Oil prices held steady on Thursday.
- Brent +0.5% to $63.01
- WTI +0.3% to $58.69, recovering a portion of Wednesday’s 4.2% slide
Markets continue weighing two opposing forces:
- Persistent global oversupply concerns
- Potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil
DBS Bank’s energy strategist Suvro Sarkar said oil should find “strong support near $60,” especially if tighter sanctions trigger short-term export interruptions. Russia’s shipments could face constraints once enforcement intensifies.
Technical Outlook:
Oil remains in a secondary downtrend, with Wednesday’s large bearish candle erasing gains from the previous three sessions.
- Moving averages are turning lower
- Short-term trend remains strongly bearish
- MACD lines have crossed below zero, confirming downside momentum
Oil is consolidating at lower levels in early Friday trade, and analysts expect a higher probability of continued downside movement.
Today’s Focus:
Bias: Buy dips cautiously, sell rebounds.
- Resistance: 60.5–61.5
- Support: 58.0–57.0
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