Market Dive

US Treasury yields spiked as buybacks offered short relief, but debt pressure, AI capex and gold volatility keep bond stress in focus. 

US July CPI cooled as Fed rate-hike bets faded, putting gold and tech stocks in focus as markets reassess real yields and liquidity. 

July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, weakening Q3 rate-hike bets as labor demand cooled and USDJPY faced intervention-driven pressure. 

US Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5%, but resilient consumer spending and stronger domestic demand suggest recession fears may be overdone. 

A second oil blockade could push crude above $120 as Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea risks threaten supply, inflation and Fed rate expectations.

US June CPI cooled below expectations as inflation pressure eased beyond energy. Rate-hike fears may still be overpriced despite oil and Middle East risks.

A stronger yen, BOJ rate hike risk and carry trade unwinds could tighten liquidity and pressure the global market rally in 2026. 

At mid-year 2026, gold is caught between US dollar strength, Fed rate-hike expectations and central bank demand. Here’s why gold may stay range-bound in H2.

Explore the 2026 mid-year market outlook as AI drives growth, liquidity shapes risk assets, and traders watch the Fed, US dollar, gold, oil and FX markets. 

May 2026 non-farm payrolls beat expectations, but World Cup hiring, weak wage growth, inflation pressure and fragile consumer confidence may keep the Fed from hiking rates.