Market Recap
Gold rebounded on Thursday, rising over 1% to around $4,112/oz, as renewed geopolitical tensions fueled safe-haven demand and traders positioned ahead of Friday’s key U.S. inflation report. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil climbed nearly 4% to $61.63/bbl, hitting a two-week high after Washington imposed sanctions on Russia’s major oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil.
The rebound follows two consecutive days of losses and comes after a volatile week that saw gold plunge from Monday’s record high near $4,381. Analysts note that while some investors took profits, others viewed the pullback as an opportunity to buy the dip amid lingering macro and geopolitical risks.
Zaner Metals strategist Peter Grant said all key drivers of gold’s rally—rate-cut expectations, central bank demand, and global uncertainty—remain intact, adding that the renewed Russia–U.S. tensions may have sparked fresh buying.
US Gold Market
Gold extended its rally, up over 57% year-to-date, supported by geopolitical risks, economic uncertainty, and strong central-bank purchases. U.S. President Donald Trump announced sanctions against Russia’s top oil exporters for their continued role in the Ukraine conflict—marking the first such move of his second term.
Gold Technical Outlook:
Gold briefly dipped to $4,004, then rebounded above $4,100, closing with a long lower wick—suggesting strong demand near the $4,000 level. The 10-day moving average capped upside momentum, while $4,000–4,020 remains critical support.
Today’s Gold Levels:
- Resistance: $4,160–4,180
- Support: $4,110–4,090
Oil Market
Oil prices surged nearly 4%, reaching a two-week high, after the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. The move is expected to pressure Russian exports, with India reportedly considering reducing imports from Moscow.
Capital Economics’ David Oxley called the sanctions a “major escalation,” potentially leading to a global supply shortfall next year. Meanwhile, diesel futures jumped 7%, pushing refining margins to their highest since early 2024.
Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said the sanctions will likely force refiners in China and India to seek alternative suppliers to avoid Western banking restrictions, tightening the global crude supply chain.
Technical Outlook:
Oil remains range-bound between $58.00–61.60, with mixed momentum after reclaiming prior lows. Near-term consolidation is likely before another potential move higher.
Today’s Levels:
- Resistance: $62.5–63.5
- Support: $59.5–58.5
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