Market Update
Spot gold traded near 4233 dollars per ounce, extending gains and briefly touching a six-week high at 4264.43 dollars. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts remain the core driver behind gold’s rally.
WTI crude traded near 59.50 dollars per barrel, supported by renewed supply concerns after Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian energy facilities and rising geopolitical uncertainty in Venezuela.
Gold
Gold climbed to a six-week high on Monday, with spot prices rising 0.3 percent to 4241.27 dollars per ounce. Silver outperformed, jumping 3.8 percent to 58.57 dollars, and briefly hitting a record high of 58.83 dollars. Silver has now gained more than 100 percent year-to-date.
Analysts note that strengthening expectations of additional Fed rate cuts remain the primary force lifting precious metals. Traders now assign an 87 percent probability to a Fed rate cut at the December meeting. Speculation that the next Fed Chair may adopt a more dovish stance is also boosting sentiment.
The US dollar index fell to a two-week low, making gold cheaper for foreign buyers and providing additional support.
Gold Technical view:
Hourly charts show gold in a fast upward rhythm, with shallow pullbacks and prices hugging short-term moving averages, signaling strong momentum. However, gold is now approaching a resistance zone, with some indicators showing mild overbought conditions. MACD also shows signs of a potential high-level cross, suggesting room for a short-term correction. The broader bullish structure remains intact, and any dip is likely a technical pullback, not a trend reversal.
Today’s Gold Levels:
Bias: Buy dips, sell rebounds
• Resistance: 4250-4270
• Support: 4200-4180
Crude Oil
Oil prices rose Monday, with Brent and WTI each gaining over 1 percent, settling at 63.17 and 59.32 dollars. The rally was driven by three factors:
- Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian facilities raised concerns about supply disruptions.
- The US announced the closure of Venezuelan airspace, adding to geopolitical risk.
- OPEC+ confirmed it would maintain production levels for Q1 2026, offering market support.
Analysts note that the market remains highly sensitive to potential Russian supply risks, especially after four consecutive monthly declines in Brent and WTI, the longest losing streak since 2023.
Technical view:
Daily charts show crude still in a secondary downtrend, with three consecutive bearish candles testing the 56 support area. MACD remains in a bearish posture. A break below 56 would confirm a deeper medium-term decline.
On the 1-hour chart, crude remains in a choppy upward bias. Price rotation shows frequent alternation of momentum, but early Asian trading indicates slight bullish dominance. MACD shows fading momentum, suggesting a slower climb. Expect range-bound upside intraday.
Today’s Levels:
Bias: Buy dips, sell rebounds
• Resistance: 60.5-61.5
• Support: 58.5-57.5
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