Market Recap
Gold prices fell to a two-week low, trading around $4,089/oz on Wednesday, as investors took profits ahead of key US inflation data due later this week. In contrast, oil prices climbed more than 3%, supported by expectations of stronger US energy demand and reports that Washington will announce major new sanctions on Russia.
Gold
After recording its sharpest one-day drop in five years, gold extended losses, weighed down by profit-taking before the delayed US CPI report.
So far in 2025, gold has gained 57%, driven by geopolitical risks, rate cut expectations, and ETF inflows.
High Ridge Futures’ David Meger noted that after several weeks of sharp gains, it’s not surprising to see some profit-taking ahead of key inflation data. Technically, gold found support near its 21-day moving average at $4,005.
Friday’s CPI report, postponed due to the US government shutdown, is expected to show core inflation at 3.1% for September. Traders have almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at next week’s meeting.
Meanwhile, Russia confirmed it is still preparing for a possible Putin-Trump summit, even as global geopolitical tensions remain high.
Gold Technical Outlook:
Gold is testing the $4,000 level, a key psychological and technical support zone. A decisive break below could trigger a deeper correction, but if it holds, it may mark a short-term bottom for renewed upside momentum driven by Fed policy expectations.
Today’s Gold Focus:
- Strategy: Sell on rebounds, buy on dips.
- Resistance: $4,160–$4,180
- Support: $4,120–$4,100
Oil
Oil prices jumped sharply, with Brent futures +3.98% to $63.76 and WTI +4.23% to $59.66, as the US prepared new sanctions on Russia and strong demand data lifted sentiment.
White House officials said the US will announce expanded sanctions on Russia within 48 hours.
The EIA reported a 0.96 million barrel decline in US crude inventories last week, defying forecasts for an increase. Analysts said the data suggest robust US demand and no immediate supply glut.
Meanwhile, reports indicated that Putin-Trump summit talks were suspended, while Western governments pressed Asian buyers to curb Russian oil imports.
Trump also stated that India’s Prime Minister Modi assured him that India would limit Russian oil purchases.
Technical Outlook:
WTI remains in a sideways channel between $58.00–$61.60, with both bullish and bearish forces balancing. Short-term volatility is expected to persist within this range.
Today’s Focus:
- Strategy: Buy on dips, sell on rallies.
- Resistance: $61.5–$62.5
- Support: $58.5–$57.5
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