During early Asian trading on Thursday, spot gold hovered near $4,461.60 per ounce. Gold fell nearly 1% on Wednesday as investors locked in profits after the recent rally. However, weaker-than-expected US labor data reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, helping gold pare some losses into the close.
Meanwhile, WTI crude traded near $56.40 per barrel, with oil prices falling for a second consecutive session. Markets continued to digest US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a deal to import up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan crude, a move expected to increase supply for the world’s largest oil consumer.
Gold
Gold prices fell more than 1% on Wednesday, driven primarily by profit-taking following recent sharp gains. Although weaker US employment data supported expectations of Fed rate cuts and helped limit downside pressure, spot gold still closed down 0.9% at $4,445.32 per ounce, after dropping as much as 1.7% intraday.
US February gold futures settled 0.7% lower at $4,462.50 per ounce.
High Ridge Futures metals director David Meger noted that the pullback reflected profit-taking after an aggressive rally, while soft labor data continues to underpin expectations for easier monetary policy, providing underlying support for gold prices. Data showed US job openings fell more than expected in November, while December ADP private payroll growth also missed forecasts. Markets are now pricing in 61 basis points of rate cuts this year, with attention shifting to Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated. Following the weekend arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump announced plans to refine and sell Venezuelan crude. The White House also confirmed discussions regarding potential options to acquire Greenland, including military considerations. Meanwhile, a major Asian central bank increased its gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month in December, reinforcing long-term demand.
Technical View
From a technical perspective, gold reversed sharply after testing the $4,500 per ounce level, falling to an intraday low near $4,423 before settling around $4,456. Daily and intraday charts suggest the prior rally left prices in overbought territory, prompting corrective selling.
Key support is seen near the 10-day moving average around $4,420, with a break potentially exposing the $4,400 psychological level. On the upside, resistance remains at $4,480 and the recent peak near $4,500, where upside momentum may remain capped as risk sentiment stabilizes.
Today’s Focus
Strategy: Buy on dips, sell into rallies
- Resistance: $4,480–$4,500
- Support: $4,440–$4,420
Oil
Oil prices extended losses for a second day on Wednesday as markets absorbed President Trump’s announcement of a deal to import up to $2 billion in Venezuelan crude, potentially boosting supply into the US market.
Brent crude fell 1.2% to $59.96 per barrel, while WTI dropped 2% to $55.99 per barrel. Both benchmarks had already declined more than $1 in the prior session, with markets broadly expecting global supply conditions to remain ample this year.
Trump stated on social media that Venezuela would “deliver” 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, said the announcement triggered renewed selling pressure.
Due to US export restrictions, Venezuela has been unable to ship crude since mid-December, leaving millions of barrels stranded. The restrictions intensified following the US military operation that led to Maduro’s arrest. On Wednesday, the US also seized an empty Russian-flagged tanker linked to Venezuelan oil in the Atlantic.
Technical View
From a daily chart perspective, oil remains capped by a bearish moving average structure, with medium-term trend direction still pointing lower. On the hourly chart, prices briefly rallied toward $58.85 before reversing sharply, erasing recent gains.
Momentum indicators suggest downside pressure is building, with prices now trading near the lower end of a broad consolidation range. A downside break appears increasingly likely if support fails.
Today’s Focus
Strategy: Buy on pullbacks, sell on rebounds
- Resistance: $57.5–$58.5
- Support: $55.0–$54.0
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