Market Recap
On Monday, spot gold traded near $4,120/oz, jumping almost 3% to a two-week high as renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts boosted demand. Meanwhile, WTI crude hovered around $60/barrel, posting a modest gain as tight refined fuel supply offset concerns of excessive crude production.
Gold
Gold surged 2.8% on Monday to $4,111.39/oz, its highest close in over two weeks. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose in tandem to $4,122.00/oz as dovish sentiment toward the Fed’s next policy steps lifted investor appetite.
Market sentiment was further influenced by political uncertainty. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the Supreme Court’s challenge to Trump’s tariff legality renewed safe-haven demand.
Peter Grant, Vice President at Zaner Metals, commented: “With these uncertainties persisting, safe-haven buying is reviving again.” He projected gold could reach between $4,300 and $4,400 by year-end.
In addition, the Trump administration’s decision to add uranium, copper, and silver to the U.S. critical minerals list highlighted Washington’s efforts to reduce dependence on foreign commodities, citing national security and industrial priorities.
Gold Technical View:
Gold continued its bullish momentum this week, breaking out of its previous consolidation zone and reaching a high near $4,105 before a minor pullback. Short-term moving averages are now sloping upward, indicating potential for further gains.
If prices hold above the $4,070–$4,050 support range, analysts expect the uptrend to continue toward the $4,160–$4,180 resistance zone.
Today’s Gold Outlook:
- Strategy: Prefer buying on dips, selling on rebounds.
- Resistance: $4,160–$4,180
- Support: $4,090–$4,070
Oil
Crude oil ended Monday slightly higher, with Brent rising 0.7% to $64.06/barrel and WTI up 0.6% to $60.13/barrel. The market reflected a delicate balance: refined product shortages lent support, while persistent fears of oversupply capped gains.
Analysts noted that OPEC+ output growth and rising production from non-OPEC countries have fueled concerns of excess supply. “The market is grappling with one of the clearest oversupply expectations in recent memory,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital.
On the demand side, JPMorgan reported slower-than-expected global oil consumption, citing weak travel and reduced container shipping activity.
Meanwhile, new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil firms raised supply risks, but Saudi Arabia’s price cuts for Asia reinforced the narrative of abundant supply. U.S. crude inventories also increased by 5.2 million barrels, reflecting low refinery utilization.
Technical View:
Oil remains in a medium-term sideways range, oscillating near the mid-zone. The MACD indicator shows mixed momentum, suggesting continued consolidation. Analysts expect intraday movement to remain range-bound between $59.0–$62.5.
Today’s Outlook:
- Strategy: Sell on rebounds, buy on dips.
- Resistance: $61.5–$62.5
- Support: $59.0–$58.0
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