Market Recap
On Friday, spot gold traded near $3,984/oz, briefly touching $4,020/oz, supported by a weaker dollar and renewed safe-haven demand after the US government added copper, coal, and silver to its critical minerals list, heightening investor caution.
Meanwhile, WTI crude hovered around $59.72/barrel, extending its decline for a third consecutive month as persistent oversupply and weak demand weighed on the market.
Gold
Gold extended gains on Thursday as investors sought safety amid political and trade uncertainty. Spot prices rebounded above the $4,000 level, reaching an intraday high near $4,020/oz, while December US gold futures settled flat at $3,991/oz.
Analysts said the ongoing US government shutdown and the Supreme Court’s challenge to Trump’s tariffs helped revive demand for safe-haven assets.
Peter Grant, Vice President at Zaner Metals, noted: “As these uncertainties persist, safe-haven buying is returning.” He expects gold to rise toward the $4,300–$4,400/oz range by year-end.
The US government’s decision to include uranium, copper, and silver in its updated critical minerals list signals an expanded focus on commodities deemed essential for national security and economic stability. The update also covers metallurgical coal, potash, rhenium, silicon, and lead, replacing the 2022 version. This move could trigger new tariffs or trade restrictions under Section 232 investigations announced earlier this year.
Gold Technical View:
Gold regained the $4,000 level and appears to be stabilizing above it. Short-term upside may continue, though momentum could fade as the rally is largely sentiment-driven by US political concerns. Traders are advised to wait for clarity from upcoming US jobs data before initiating new positions.
Today’s Gold Focus:
- Strategy: Prefer selling on rallies, with buy-the-dip opportunities near support.
- Resistance: 4,020–4,045
- Support: 3,965–3,940
Oil
Oil prices extended losses on Thursday, with Brent crude closing at $63.38/barrel and WTI at $59.43/barrel, marking the third straight monthly decline. The market remains pressured by rising supply and subdued demand.
Analysts pointed to ongoing OPEC+ output increases and steady non-OPEC production growth, deepening concerns about a global glut.
John Kilduff of Again Capital remarked, “The market is facing one of the clearest expectations of oversupply in history.”
On the demand side, a J.P. Morgan report noted weaker-than-expected global oil consumption, with US demand dampened by sluggish travel and shipping activity.
Despite new US sanctions on Russian oil, Saudi Arabia’s price cuts for Asian buyers reinforced expectations of abundant supply. Meanwhile, US crude inventories rose by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million, adding further downside pressure.
Technical View:
Oil remains in a broad sideways pattern, but short-term momentum has turned bearish. With prices now below the $60 support, further downside is likely.
Today’s Focus:
- Strategy: Prefer selling on rebounds, with limited dip-buying near support.
- Resistance: 61.0–62.0
- Support: 58.5–57.5
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