Market Recap
Gold prices surged on Thursday, hitting a three-week high at $4,211/oz, as U.S. bond yields fell and rate-cut expectations gained momentum. Meanwhile, oil tumbled more than 4%, pressured by an OPEC report forecasting that global oil supply and demand will reach balance by 2026, signaling the end of a long-anticipated shortage narrative.
Gold
Spot gold jumped nearly 2% to $4,211.65/oz, its highest since October 21, while December futures climbed 2.4% to $4,213.60/oz.
Falling Treasury yields and stronger Fed cut expectations fueled the rally, with the 10-year yield dropping to its lowest since early November.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 65% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December.
Analysts at TD Securities noted that the end of the 42-day government shutdown will allow the release of delayed economic data, likely revealing a softening economy that supports further easing.
Gold Technical View:
Gold broke out decisively after rebounding from the $4,100 support zone, surging past $4,150 resistance and peaking near $4,211. The trend remains bullish, with key support at $4,150–$4,130 and strong resistance near $4,250. As long as gold trades above the $4,150 level, the bullish structure stays intact, suggesting more upside potential.
Today’s Gold Outlook:
- Strategy: Buy on dips, sell on rebounds.
- Resistance: $4,220–$4,250
- Support: $4,160–$4,130
Oil
Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with Brent crude down 3.76% to $62.71/barrel and WTI down 4.18% to $58.49/barrel, after OPEC projected that global oil supply will match demand by 2026. The shift from a deficit to balance outlook sent a strong bearish signal to the market.
Analysts said the projection “reinforced the perception that the market is entering a state of equilibrium,” undermining the bullish narrative that had supported prices for months.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) maintained a longer-term bullish stance, forecasting continued oil and gas demand growth through 2050, diverging from climate-aligned scenarios.
Technical View:
From a daily perspective, oil remains in a corrective phase. Although short-term charts suggest limited upside, the MACD indicates that bullish momentum could rebuild after the pullback. Intraday resistance is seen at $59.5–$60.5, while support sits near $57.0–$56.0.
Today’s Outlook:
- Strategy: Buy on dips, sell on rebounds.
- Resistance: $59.5–$60.5
- Support: $57.0–$56.0
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